How we measure
Every number on this site comes from the two sources below and the arithmetic described here. Where we lack the data to compute something, we say so instead of estimating it.
Where unlock data comes from
Unlock schedules come from DefiLlama's public emissions dataset, refreshed daily. We ingest cliff unlocks — discrete events where a fixed number of tokens becomes liquid on a specific date.
We deliberately exclude linear emissions. In the source data a linear entry describes a change in weekly emission rate, not a quantity of tokens, so there is no honest way to give it a size in tokens or dollars. Including them with blank values would pad the calendar with rows nobody can act on, so we count them and leave them out.
A single date often carries several allocations — team, investors, ecosystem and so on. We aggregate them to one entry per token per day, because that is what actually hits the market at once.
Where price data comes from
Daily prices, market caps and volumes come from CoinGecko. Our plan provides one year of daily history, which is the hard limit on how far back any return here can be measured. A trade older than that cannot be checked, and we tell you so rather than guessing.
Circulating supply is not published alongside these prices, so we derive it as market cap divided by price on the relevant day. That is an estimate, and it is the basis of every “% of circulating” figure on the site.
How returns and buckets are computed
For a past unlock on date T, the 30-day return is the token's own price on T+30 divided by its price on T, minus one. We also compute T−30 and T+7 the same way. If a horizon lands in the future, or on a day we hold no price for, that figure stays empty — it is never interpolated.
Each unlock is bucketed by its share of circulating supply: <1%, 1–5%, 5–10%, >10%. A bucket average is the mean 30-day return of every past unlock in it. Future unlocks have no price at T, so their size and dollar value are estimated from the most recent price and market cap we hold, and they carry no return of their own.
Sample size travels with every average as n. Where n is small, treat the average as weak evidence — that is exactly why we show it.
What Preshock is not
Preshock does not predict prices. A bucket average is a description of what has already happened after unlocks of a similar size across many different tokens and market conditions. It is not a forecast for any particular upcoming date, and we do not present it as one.
Preshock gives no advice. You will not find a “buy”, a “sell”, a price target or a risk score anywhere on this site. The Trade Check tool shows what the calendar looked like around a trade you already made; it does not grade the decision.
Data and awareness. Not financial advice.